The EU prospects for Ukraine at the end of 2024

The issue of Ukraine's integration with the European Union remains one of the key topics in political and media debates, both within Ukraine itself and in the EU Member States. Since obtaining official candidate status for EU membership in 2022, the Ukrainian government has been focusing on reforms and aligning national legislation with the EU acquis communautaire. Both the progressing negotiation process and the intensification of efforts by Ukrainian authorities in combating corruption, reforming the judiciary, and strengthening defence capabilities shape the dynamics of Kyiv's relations with Brussels. This article will outline the most significant facts and circumstances affecting further negotiations on Ukraine's EU membership, taking into account the current situation.

Historical and geopolitical context

Since gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine has demonstrated varying degrees of pro-European aspirations. This process accelerated significantly after 2014, following the events on Kyiv’s Maidan, which led to a change in government and a decisive shift towards the West. Russia's aggression in the Donbas region and the annexation of Crimea were pivotal events that altered the geopolitical landscape across Eastern Europe.

In June 2022, in response to Ukraine's formal application for membership, the European Council decided to grant Ukraine candidate status. This event was recognised as a groundbreaking and symbolic "historic moment" in the relations between Kyiv and Brussels. At the time, Ukrainian authorities pledged to expedite reform efforts to enable the swift commencement of official accession negotiations.

At the same time, Ukrainian authorities emphasise the broader geopolitical context, pointing to the ongoing armed conflict in the country’s east and the need to ensure stability throughout the region. Cooperation with the European Union, particularly in the areas of security and defence, assumes critical importance within this framework.

Progress in accession negotiations

In the first half of 2023, the European Union initiated official talks with Ukraine in several negotiation areas. According to information provided by European institutions and non-governmental organisations in Kyiv, throughout 2023, progress was made in closing or at least preliminarily concluding several initial chapters related to trade regulations and customs cooperation.

The dynamic growth of Ukraine-EU trade remains one of the most important aspects of their cooperation, with the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) being actively developed despite the ongoing war. Progress is also evident in the harmonisation of production and quality control standards in agriculture, a critical component for Ukraine’s future integration into the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy.

The most significant challenges remain in the chapters related to the judiciary, the rule of law, and combating corruption. Judicial reforms and effective anti-corruption measures have been priorities from the outset of the accession talks. These areas are crucial in determining the pace of further integration. EU institutions expect full transparency, the strengthening of judicial independence, and the effective enforcement of anti-corruption legislation. These demands underline the critical importance of aligning Ukraine’s institutional framework with European standards to advance its accession prospects.

Selected reforms and their significance

In 2023, the government in Kyiv adopted laws aimed at increasing the transparency of administrative procedures, established new oversight bodies, and strengthened law enforcement agencies in their efforts to combat economic crimes. Work is ongoing on judicial reform, including the evaluation of judges and the introduction of disciplinary procedures. Judicial reform is a key prerequisite for further negotiations with the EU.

Full transparency and institutional reforms are of critical importance for Ukraine’s accession process, the country’s reconstruction efforts, and the restoration of investor confidence. These measures underscore Ukraine's commitment to meeting the EU's standards and fostering a stable and predictable environment for development.

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