A Defensive Strategy: A New Path for Ukraine?

Is public support for Kyiv waning in the West? And if so, does this automatically translate to increased support for Russia? These questions are being raised by experts in light of the lack of agreement in the U.S. Senate regarding the extension of additional financial support for Ukraine. Today, as the United States grapples with destabilization along its southern border and attacks in the Middle East and the Red Sea region, support for Ukraine has shifted in priority, and the approval of financial aid to the country may be delayed.

Kyiv’s anticipated military offensive on the frontlines has not delivered the expected results. Ukrainian officials have blamed the West, alleging insufficient commitment to arming its forces fighting against Russian invaders. Ukraine’s offensive capabilities rely heavily on advanced Western technologies, including tanks, combat vehicles, and long-range missiles. Without these resources, Ukraine has little chance of pushing Russia back to its pre-2014 borders. Many nations supporting Ukraine in its struggle, and especially the Ukrainians themselves, see the only meaningful end to the war as complete victory. For them, defeating Russia means expelling it from Ukraine, including from Donbas and Crimea. Without money and weapons, this cannot be achieved.

According to Germany’s RND portal, commitments to aid Ukraine have declined by as much as 87%. Experts from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, cited by RND, compared aid levels from August to October in 2022 and 2023. In 2022, assistance during this period amounted to €16 billion, while in the same months of 2023, it plunged to €2 billion. This is the lowest level since the beginning of the war and includes humanitarian, financial, and military support. The lack of military aid, in particular, is Ukraine’s greatest concern today, as victory in this war seems impossible without it.

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