25 September. In response to the deteriorating situation in Donbas, the United States announced a military assistance package worth USD 375 million, including, inter alia, AGM-154 JSOW glide bombs. With a range exceeding 110 km, this weapon system is intended to extend the strike reach of Ukrainian F-16 aircraft.

A notable technical development was the Ukrainian destruction of a Russian Shahed drone equipped with a Starlink terminal, demonstrating Moscow’s attempts to circumvent sanctions in order to enhance the precision of its unmanned systems.

Political tensions peaked when Vladimir Putin announced changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. The new provisions stipulate that aggression by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power would be treated as a joint attack on Russia, thereby justifying a nuclear response. Experts assessed this move as yet another instance of “nuclear blackmail,” aimed at deterring the West from authorising long-range strikes using Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles.

The final days of September were marked by intense diplomatic activity by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the United States. While in Washington President Joe Biden unveiled a substantial support package worth USD 7.9 billion, the U.S. election campaign highlighted deep political divisions. Kamala Harris warned against “proposals of capitulation” allegedly emanating from Donald Trump, who in turn publicly criticised Zelenskyy for his unwillingness to negotiate with Putin.

On the home front, Ukraine faced a wave of massive aerial terror. In Kyiv, falling drone debris caused gas pipelines in residential buildings to lose integrity, while in Kryvyi Rih a Russian missile struck a police building directly, killing four officers. The brutality of the attacks was further underscored by a strike on Izmail, where three people, including children, were killed overnight. At the same time, Ukrainian intelligence carried out a successful operation inside Russia itself: in Kolomna near Moscow, Colonel Aleksei Kolomeitsev, head of a centre training Shahed drone operators, was killed.

28 September witnessed one of the most tragic war crimes of the month. Russian forces carried out a so-called “double tap” attack on a hospital in Sumy. After the first explosion, rescuers and police arrived to evacuate patients, only for a second missile to strike the site. Ten people were killed in this cynical attack, including police officers and patients.

September 2024 entered history as the first month of the war in which Russia launched Shahed drones against Ukraine every single day. A record total of 1,339 drones were deployed, averaging 44 attacks per day. Despite the high effectiveness of Ukrainian air defences (82% of drones intercepted), the sustained pressure depleted defensive resources and terrorised the civilian population.

The month concluded with yet another decree by Putin ordering the conscription of 133,000 new recruits, confirming that the Kremlin had no intention of abandoning its tactic of overwhelming Ukrainian positions with manpower.

October began with dramatic changes on the battlefield map, bringing to an end nearly two years of defence of the “fortress” in southern Donbas. After months of fierce fighting and systematic destruction of infrastructure, the Ukrainian command officially confirmed the withdrawal of forces from Vuhledar. The city, situated on a strategic elevation at the junction of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts, became a key asset for Russia’s further operations westward and northward, towards Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka.

1 October, Ukraine’s Day of Defenders, was marked by tragedy. As the country observed a minute of silence, Russian forces brutally shelled a market and a bus stop in Kherson, killing six people. At the same time, Russian flags were raised over the ruins of high-rise buildings in Vuhledar. The evacuation of the last hundred civilians took place under extreme conditions, amid constant shelling of exit routes. Russia’s success in this sector came at the cost of enormous equipment losses, but enabled it to straighten the front line.

The first days of October brought sensational reports from the rear of the front. According to Ukrainian intelligence, at least 20 North Korean soldiers, including officers, were killed in a missile strike near Donetsk. This constituted the first clear indication of the direct involvement of personnel from Pyongyang in the fighting in Ukraine, aimed, inter alia, at overseeing ammunition supplies.

A genuine technological shock, however, occurred on 5 October over Kostiantynivka. Russian forces shot down their own most advanced stealth strike drone, the S-70 Okhotnik-B. The aircraft had likely lost contact with its base, and a Su-57 pilot—fearing the capture of sensitive technology by Ukrainian forces—launched a missile at its “partner.” The wreckage nonetheless fell on territory controlled by Kyiv, providing Western experts with a unique opportunity to examine Russian low-observability technology.

Illustrative photo generated by AI