Since 2014, four countries - France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia - kept their diplomatic services busy working to normalize the situation in Ukraine. The format for meetings of representatives of these countries is known as the Normandy Four. The first meeting under the Normandy format took place on 6 June 2014, during the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the D-Day landing of Allied troops in Normandy (hence the name of the format). In total, seven such meetings were held by the end of 2021. Vladimir Putin, Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande participated in all the meetings, except for one on 24 February 2015, which gathered foreign ministers. After the 2019 presidential elections, one meeting was held in Paris (9 December 2019), attended by Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky.

On 27 July 2020, a ceasefire deal was signed, which was the longest observed. Despite various incidents during it, from its signing to mid-2021, considerably fewer people were killed than in the preceding periods.

The 2019 presidential elections in Ukraine raised the Kremlin’s expectations. Russia looked for concessions from Zelensky regarding the conflict in the Donbas. However, Kyiv was adamant, and Zelensky did not agree that Russia’s image in the Normandy format should be based on the role of a negotiator and not a party to the conflict. As a result, in the spring of 2021, Russia began a demonstration of force by concentrating significant military forces (approx. 100,000 soldiers) in Crimea under the guise of training exercises. The United States responded by easing the sanctions on the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. In June 2021, the North Atlantic Alliance provisionally approved Kyiv’s plans to join NATO.

From the spring of 2021, Russia launched a massive military buildup of heavy weapons systems and troops in the territories bordering Ukraine (Russian Western Military District and Belarusian Eastern Military District). At the same time, Putin began to escalate the conflict with Europe. At a Normandy format meeting, he first accused the Western world of intensifying tensions in Eastern Europe and demanded “security guarantees”, which would include a commitment not to expand NATO to the east, to remove offensive systems from near Russia’s borders and to return to the pre-1997 military capability and infrastructure levels. 

On 10-20 February 2022, military drills were held in Belarus with the participation of 100 thousand Russian soldiers. At the same time (13-19 February) the Black Sea Fleet exercises were organized in the Black Sea. Following these exercises, Russian troops were not withdrawn from Belarus and the Western Military District; just the reverse, the numbers actually increased.

On 15 February 2022, the State Duma supported the motion to recognize the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. On 21 February, Vladimir Putin signed a decree on this matter.

On 24 February 2022, Putin addressed the nation and announced the launch of a “special military operation” aimed at defending the population of the Donbas against “genocide”, along with “demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine”. Officially, it was the republics newly recognized by Russia (the day before) that requested military intervention. 

Early in the morning, the invasion of Ukraine began.