During the final week of March, Russian forces captured an additional 5% of the territory of Bakhmut, bringing their control to approximately 65% of the city. The Wagner Group likely seized the AZOM industrial complex.

Russian attacks continued in and around Bakhmut, as well as along the Kupiansk–Svatove–Kreminna line and the Avdiivka–Donetsk axis. The Mayor of Avdiivka announced that, due to the worsening security situation, volunteers and media representatives were no longer permitted to enter the city. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces had reached central Bakhmut, while the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) noted further Russian advances in the industrial zone. Ukraine received 18 Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks and approximately 40 Marder 1 infantry fighting vehicles from Germany.

Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov confirmed the arrival of the first British Challenger 2 tanks.

General Mark Milley stated that approximately 6,000 professional mercenaries from the Wagner Group and a further 20,000–30,000 other mercenaries were fighting in Bakhmut, suffering what he described as “enormous losses.” The UK Ministry of Defence estimated total Russian losses since the start of the war at over 220,000 killed and wounded. Moscow began preparations for a new recruitment campaign aimed at enlisting 400,000 soldiers. The ISW reported ongoing integration of occupied territories into Russia’s administrative system. The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, visited the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to assess its condition and called for all possible measures to protect the facility.

On 30 March, Russia conducted 11 missile strikes, four air raids and 43 artillery attacks. During the night, Russian forces launched nine missiles at civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, injuring five people. According to Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defence, Russian losses were several times higher than Ukrainian losses, reaching ratios of up to 10:1 on certain days. The ISW warned that Russia’s spring conscription campaign (147,000 recruits) could strain the army’s training capacity. In Russia, The Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich was arrested on espionage charges, triggering widespread international condemnation.

On 31 March, shelling of Zaporizhzhia injured two people, while in Avdiivka two civilians, including a child, were killed. The International Monetary Fund approved a USD 15.6 billion support package for Ukraine. The UK Ministry of Defence assessed that the command of Valery Gerasimov since January had yielded no significant results, with Russia achieving only marginal territorial gains at the cost of tens of thousands of casualties. The ISW noted that President Vladimir Putin announced a new foreign policy concept aimed at building an anti-Western bloc. Despite limited Russian advances in Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces regained positions southwest of the city. The OSW reported that heavy fighting continued in the city centre.

On 1 April, Ukraine’s General Staff reported widespread looting in occupied areas, particularly in Melitopol, where timber was illegally harvested and transported. In Kozachi Laheri, Russian forces conducted phone inspections and house searches following a successful Ukrainian strike. Forced passportisation continued in Kherson Oblast, with threats of travel bans for those without Russian passports. Occupation authorities also falsified property ownership documents. The UK Ministry of Defence reported that a significant portion of Russian losses were non-combat casualties related to alcohol abuse, accidents and hypothermia. The ISW concluded that Russia’s winter offensive had failed to achieve its objectives and that Russian command was unable to break Ukrainian defences.

On 2 April, the heaviest fighting persisted in Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka. Russian forces carried out five missile strikes and more than 80 artillery attacks. Six civilians were killed and 11 wounded in a Russian strike on Kostiantynivka using S-300 missiles and BM-27 Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems. In Kherson Oblast, 20 shellings were recorded, including in Kherson city, where one person was killed. In occupied Melitopol, teachers were coerced into accepting Russian passports, while Russian forces continued fortification works in southern Ukraine. In Saint Petersburg, an explosion at a café owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin killed the pro-Russian blogger Vladlen Tatarsky. The ISW suggested the incident may have served as a warning to Prigozhin for his criticism of Russian authorities. Ukraine carried out a successful HIMARS strike on a railway depot in Melitopol. A 12-point plan for the de-occupation of Crimea was also announced, including the expulsion of Russians settled there after the 2014 annexation and the demolition of the Crimean Bridge.

On 3 April, Russian forces attacked Odessa with 17 drones, 14 of which were shot down. In occupied territories, public spaces were closed and residents in the Kakhovka area were ordered to remain indoors. In Mariupol, fortifications around the port and the Azovstal plant were expanded. Prigozhin claimed the capture of the Bakhmut city administration building, a claim denied by Ukrainian authorities. The ISW assessed that Wagner forces had nevertheless made advances in the city centre and seized administrative buildings.

Poland and Slovakia transferred additional MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, while NATO announced the date of Finland’s accession to the Alliance. Russian General Rustam Muradov, responsible for the failed offensive near Vuhledar, was dismissed from his post.

Illustrative photo generated by AI