18 March. The eastern front remained extremely active. Ukrainian forces repelled as many as 83 Russian attacks, primarily in the Bakhmut sector, which continued to constitute the epicentre of the fighting. Russian forces shelled Kramatorsk using cluster munitions, killing two people and injuring five others. Shahed drones struck Yavoriv and Lviv Oblast.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted growing nervousness on the part of Yevgeny Prigozhin, who suggested that the Russian offensive was becoming exhausted. Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence confirmed Russia’s use of Chinese-manufactured ammunition as well as the import of 1,000 rifles and drone components. Ankara announced the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

19 March. Russian forces continued attacks in the areas of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka and Lyman. Repression intensified in occupied territories. In Kherson Oblast, residents were threatened with punishment for failing to obtain Russian passports; at checkpoints, local civilians were threatened with unlawful detention and acts of violence. The Ukrainian army carried out a precision missile strike on a Russian base in Novotroitske—nearly 100 kilometres behind the front line—killing approximately 90 soldiers.

20 March. Russian attacks on Bakhmut and its surroundings continued, but without significant advances. In the evening, Ukrainian drones struck Dzhankoi in Crimea. According to Ukrainian sources, a shipment of Kalibr cruise missiles was destroyed, while Russian authorities claimed that all attacking drones had been shot down. The United States announced a military assistance package worth USD 350 million, and the European Union approved a plan to deliver one million artillery shells within a year. Norway transferred eight Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin failed to produce a breakthrough. Beijing maintained a cautious stance, while Moscow continued efforts to rally countries of the Global South against the West.

21 March. The United States declared that it would supply M1A1 tanks instead of the more advanced M1A2 variant, while the United Kingdom announced the transfer of depleted uranium munitions. Despite Chinese export restrictions on drones, Russia imported equipment from China worth USD 12 million. The ISW assessed that Russian forces had not captured new territory near Bakhmut and were continuing limited attacks in the Donetsk area.

22 March. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the front line in Bakhmut, awarding medals and meeting with wounded soldiers. The International Monetary Fund considered granting Ukraine a USD 15.6 billion loan.

23 March. Bakhmut remained the principal focal point of resistance. According to General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russia’s offensive potential in the Bakhmut sector was becoming exhausted. Ukraine received four MiG-29 fighter jets from Slovakia. Meanwhile, according to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russian forces and security services in occupied areas of Kherson Oblast began searching for individuals who were or had been employed by Ukrainian law enforcement agencies, as well as military veterans and other Ukrainians with combat experience.

24 March. Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces, reported heavy losses suffered by the Wagner Group in the Bakhmut direction. The UK Ministry of Defence assessed that the Russian offensive against Bakhmut was losing momentum and that Avdiivka was becoming Moscow’s priority. The ISW noted that the Kremlin was preparing public opinion for potential failures, while the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) emphasised that Ukrainian forces continued to effectively defend the Chasiv Yar–Bohdanivka–Orikhovo-Vasylivka line.

25 March. Ukraine repelled more than 85 Russian attacks, with the heaviest fighting concentrated around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. In Kherson, Russian forces bombed a humanitarian aid distribution point, injuring two people, while in Kharkiv Oblast a civilian was killed. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, announced that the situation in Bakhmut had stabilised, although fighting remained intense. Russian losses were estimated at nearly 400 personnel. President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine would not yet launch a counteroffensive due to ammunition shortages and delays in deliveries. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin announced plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus—an act which the ISW assessed as primarily propagandistic in nature. The UK Ministry of Defence reported that Russia continued to receive Shahed-136 drones from Iran.

26 March. Fighting for Bakhmut continued, and Russian state media reported that the AZOM industrial plant had been captured by the Wagner Group. Ukraine’s General Staff stated that Russian forces continued to suffer heavy losses. In Troitske, approximately 100 bodies of deceased Russian soldiers were delivered to the morgue of the central district hospital, while around 140 severely wounded troops were hospitalised. The ISW emphasised that President Putin had not altered Russia’s war objectives and showed no readiness for negotiations, continuing offensive operations along the Svatove–Kreminna and Avdiivka–Donetsk axes.

Illustrative photo generated by AI