24 February. On the first anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, fighting concentrated around Bakhmut. Russian forces captured the villages of Berkhivka and Yahidne, and hostilities spread into the city itself. Ukrainian troops repelled approximately 70 attacks. Over the course of the day, Russia conducted 27 air strikes and 75 artillery attacks. Mobilisation continued in Chechnya, and 200 members of the Akhmat regiment were deployed to the Bakhmut area to prevent desertions.

Poland, Sweden, Canada and the United States announced new support packages, including additional Leopard 2 main battle tanks and artillery equipment. The UK Ministry of Defence reported that Russia had likely exhausted its stockpiles of Iranian-made drones. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted Russia’s failure to achieve its declared war objectives, while the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) reported only marginal Russian advances around Bakhmut. China proposed a peace plan; however, the United States and Ukraine expressed scepticism, pointing to the absence of any condemnation of Russian aggression.

25–26 February. Russian forces continued intensive offensive operations. Ukrainian troops repelled 71 and 81 attacks respectively. Shelling and air strikes primarily targeted civilian infrastructure in Donetsk, Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Ukraine confirmed the destruction of two Russian fuel depots in Mariupol. Near Kreminna, Russian forces reportedly lost around 70 soldiers. ISW reported on a possible planned meeting between Alexander Lukashenko and Xi Jinping aimed at circumventing sanctions. On 26 February, Bakhmut remained the epicentre of the Russian offensive, with significant Russian losses reported in the Bakhmutivka area. That day also saw a daring attack by Belarusian partisans on the Machulishchy military airfield, where a Russian Beriev A-50 airborne early warning aircraft was damaged.

27 February. Russian forces sustained intensive assaults along the main operational axes, while Ukrainian troops repelled more than 60 attacks, including in the areas of Makiivka, Kreminna, and Bakhmut, as well as Krasnohorivka and Marinka. Three drone strikes in Khmelnytskyi killed two people and injured three others, including emergency responders. Ukrainian authorities reported restrictions on civilian movement in occupied Kherson Oblast, notably through a pass system. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pointed to the deteriorating situation around Bakhmut. ISW reported a regrouping of Russian forces and the deployment of new mobile assault units, while OSW noted increased pressure on Ukrainian lines near Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka. Russia continued missile strikes against Ukraine’s rear areas and strengthened its positions in Kherson Oblast and Crimea.

28 February. Fighting around Bakhmut intensified. Russian units were already present in certain districts of the city, attempting to encircle it from three directions. Reports emerged of the evacuation of families of Russian soldiers from Crimea. ISW highlighted an escalation of Kremlin disinformation efforts aimed at diverting attention from the lack of tangible battlefield successes. The CSIS estimated Russian losses at 60,000–70,000 killed and a total of 200,000–250,000 casualties, exceeding all Russian military losses since the Second World War.

1 March. Russia carried out heavy shelling of Kharkiv, Poltava and Donetsk oblasts. Alexander Lukashenko was in Beijing, where 16 agreements were signed jointly with Xi Jinping, potentially facilitating the circumvention of sanctions. ISW reported the failure of a Russian armoured offensive near Vuhledar, where approximately 130 armoured vehicles were lost in one of the largest armoured engagements of the war.

2 March. Reports emerged of forced “filtration” measures: around 200 people were deported from Kherson Oblast for refusing to surrender property, and their homes were occupied by Russian mercenaries. In Bryansk Oblast, the Russian Volunteer Corps carried out an attack that Vladimir Putin described as an act of terrorism; the Ukrainian side distanced itself from the incident, characterising it as a provocation. The Ukrainian General Staff reported further transfers of Russian equipment from Belarus. The UK Ministry of Defence noted that sanctions had weakened Russia’s capacity to produce modern weaponry.

3 March. Ukraine received a new U.S. assistance package worth USD 400 million. At the same time, NATO analysed the possibility of opening ammunition production facilities in Eastern Europe. According to General Christopher G. Cavoli, Russian forces were expending more than 23,000 artillery shells per day.

4 March. Fighting continued along the entire front line, with the greatest intensity around Bakhmut, where Russian forces attempted to close the encirclement. According to Ukrainian sources, Russian troops used civilians as “human shields” in Nova Kakhovka by deploying air-defence systems in residential areas. Within 24 hours, Russia conducted six missile strikes, 24 air strikes and more than 65 artillery attacks, causing numerous civilian casualties. Ukrainian aviation carried out 22 strikes, targeting artillery positions and depots. ISW assessed that despite gaining advantages in certain sectors, Russian forces were unable to fully encircle Bakhmut.

5 March. Russian attacks continued around Bakhmut, as well as near Avdiivka and Donetsk. The UK Ministry of Defence pointed to the collapse of Russia’s armoured vehicle fleet, forcing the army to rely on obsolete T-62 tanks and BTR-50 armoured personnel carriers. According to ISW, Ukrainian forces conducted a limited tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut. Reports also indicated a deepening economic crisis in Russia and a decline in oil exports by more than 40%.

6 March. The Ukrainian command declared its intention to continue the defence of Bakhmut despite intense fighting. ISW assessed that even the capture of the city would not translate into a major operational success for Russia. On that day, the death of a Ukrainian prisoner of war, shot by Russian soldiers, was confirmed. A video of the execution circulated widely, causing international outrage. Preliminary information identified the victim as Tymofii Mykolaiovych Shadura, a soldier of the 30th Mechanised Brigade who had gone missing near Bakhmut in early February.

7 March. A prisoner exchange took place: Ukraine recovered 130 soldiers, while Russia received 90. In Ulyanivka, Russian forces confiscated grain from farms, confirming the continued looting of Ukrainian resources. According to British assessments, the Russian command faced a strategic dilemma: whether to continue the offensive near Bakhmut or to renew the assault on Vuhledar. ISW concluded that Russia would be unable to sustain offensive operations even if Bakhmut were captured.

Illustrative photo generated by AI