16 July marked a symbolic yet painful end to a distinct phase of fighting in the south. Ukrainian media confirmed the final evacuation of the bridgehead at Krynky on the left bank of the Dnipro River.

The position, held since autumn 2023, had been almost completely levelled, depriving the defenders of any remaining shelter. In response to these developments, General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported a precision strike against a Russian S-300 air-defence system in Donetsk Oblast, consistent with the broader strategy of “clearing the skies” ahead of the anticipated deployment of F-16 fighter aircraft.

17 July saw the 54th prisoner exchange, under which 95 Ukrainian defenders—including infantry soldiers and naval personnel—returned home. In Strasbourg, the newly constituted European Parliament adopted a resolution supporting Ukraine while condemning Viktor Orbán’s so-called “peace mission.” In the background, a German court sentenced a married couple who for years had circumvented sanctions by supplying Russia with approximately 120,000 components for Orlan-10 drones.

During a summit in the United Kingdom, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed additional security agreements with the Czech Republic and Slovenia, envisaging, inter alia, joint projects in the field of electronic warfare (EW). At the same time, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz firmly rejected Polish–Ukrainian proposals to intercept Russian missiles using NATO systems operating from Polish territory.

19 July was marked by continued Russian offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, where invading forces captured the village of Prohres, opening a route along a strategically important railway line toward Pokrovsk. Tragedy struck the rear cities when a Russian missile hit a playground in Mykolaiv, killing four people, including a child. On the southern front, a new Russian tactic was observed: owing to shortages of heavy armoured equipment, Russian forces increasingly employed motorcycles and light Chinese Desertcross vehicles for rapid assaults on Ukrainian positions. A significant political event was a telephone conversation between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump—their first contact in years—described by the Ukrainian side as constructive.

20 July brought an announcement by the Russian Ministry of Defence claiming the capture of the village of Pishchane in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating an attempt to regain the initiative on the Kupiansk axis. Night-time strikes using Iskander missiles and Shahed drones targeted energy infrastructure in Sumy and Poltava oblasts, cutting electricity to thousands of households. In Lviv, the shocking murder of Professor Iryna Farion occurred; President Zelenskyy did not rule out a “Russian trace” in the case.

21 July saw an intensification of Russian attacks on critical infrastructure, including the use of a “double-tap” tactic in Sumy Oblast, whereby a second strike occurred as emergency services were responding to the first. General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported “fierce fighting” in the areas of Prohres and Chasiv Yar, stressing that despite heavy losses Russia continued its push toward Pokrovsk. In the north, near Hlyboke, the aggressor concentrated additional marine infantry units in preparation for a new offensive operation. Ukraine responded with a successful drone strike on the Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai and on the Morozovsk air base. A notable industrial development was the signing of a memorandum between Boeing and Antonov concerning joint production and servicing of drones such as the ScanEagle.

23 July brought further deterioration of the situation in Donbas. Russian forces captured Ivano-Dariivka, which the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) assessed as a local breakthrough of defensive lines near Siversk. In the diplomatic sphere, Josep Borrell penalised Hungary for Orbán’s “peace mission” by relocating an EU foreign ministers’ meeting from Budapest to Brussels, while Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba undertook a key visit to China.

25 July saw Russian forces capture Yasnobrodivka; however, the Institute for the Study of War noted that the enemy’s willingness to sacrifice vast numbers of armoured vehicles for minimal tactical gains was unsustainable in the long term. The Commander of the National Guard, General Oleksandr Pivnenko, predicted that within approximately six weeks Russia’s offensive capabilities would be exhausted, forcing a transition to defensive operations. During the night, Russian Shahed drones violated Romanian airspace—debris was found near the village of Plauru—prompting a NATO response. Positive news for Kyiv included the revelation of a Pentagon accounting error that would allow Ukraine to receive an additional USD 2 billion in assistance, as well as declarations by Denmark and the Netherlands to deliver 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks later in the summer.

27 July the Russian army reported advances north of Kharkiv, claiming the capture of Hlyboke, though these reports could not be immediately confirmed by ISW. A Russian shelling of the city of Hlukhiv in Sumy Oblast killed a 14-year-old boy and injured numerous civilians, including children. On the same day, drones operated by Ukrainian military intelligence carried out a spectacular attack on the Olenya air base in Murmansk Oblast, damaging a Tu-22M3 bomber, and also struck the Ryazan refinery as well as the Engels and Dyagilevo airfields. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned China against further support for Russia’s industrial base, declaring that Washington would take retaliatory measures.

Illustrative photo generated by AI