11 February. Russia continued attacks against civilian targets. Three S-300 missiles struck civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, while shelling also affected the towns of Nikopol and Marhanets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

According to the UK Ministry of Defence, over the preceding two weeks Russia had suffered its highest fatality rate since the beginning of the war, attributable inter alia to a shortage of adequately trained personnel and poor operational coordination. Analyses by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicated only minimal Russian gains across most sectors of the front, with the exception of the Bakhmut area, where the intensity of fighting continued to increase.

12 February. The Wagner Group announced the capture of the settlement of Krasna Hora, located north of Bakhmut. Despite this, Ukrainian forces held their positions, repelled numerous assaults, and inflicted heavy losses on the attacker—212 killed and 315 wounded within a single day. In southern Ukraine, British assessments reported the continued expansion of Russian fortifications in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. At the same time, the U.S. Embassy in Moscow urged American citizens to leave Russia immediately, citing the risk of arbitrary detention.

13 February. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence reported ongoing fighting in Bakhmut, where Russian forces had altered tactics by attacking in small assault groups and deploying mobilised personnel without adequate preparation. For security reasons, access to the city was restricted for journalists and volunteers. Denmark transferred its entire stock of 19 CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, while NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that Ukraine’s ammunition consumption exceeded the production capacities of NATO member states. British intelligence noted limited advances by Wagner Group units on Bakhmut’s northern outskirts, though Ukrainian defences continued to hold.

14 February. Russian missiles struck civilian infrastructure in Donetsk Oblast, including the Palace of Culture in Kostiantynivka. On the same day, the ninth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein format took place. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced partners’ commitments to supply additional air-defence systems, tanks, and artillery. In Poland, training of Ukrainian soldiers on Leopard 2 tanks commenced, while Norway declared its intention to transfer eight such tanks to Ukraine. ISW analysts assessed the continued defence of Bakhmut as strategically justified, noting the attrition of elite Russian forces—including the Wagner Group and airborne units—which could create favourable conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive.

15 February. Russia shelled the city of Pokrovsk using BM-30 Smerch multiple rocket launch systems. One rocket hit a residential building, killing three civilians and injuring eleven others. In Kyiv, six Russian balloons were shot down; these were assessed as potentially used for reconnaissance or diversionary purposes. The Financial Times reported that Russia was amassing large numbers of aircraft and helicopters near the Ukrainian border, possibly signalling preparations for enhanced air support of ground operations.

16 February. Russia carried out another missile strike, launching at least 36 cruise missiles, of which 16 were intercepted by Ukrainian air defences. The attack targeted critical infrastructure in Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kirovohrad oblasts. In Pavlohrad, one person was killed and eight were wounded. On the same day, another prisoner exchange took place: 100 Ukrainian soldiers and one civilian—primarily defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal—returned home. According to estimates by the UK Ministry of Defence, Russian losses since the start of the invasion may have reached 175,000–200,000 personnel, including 40,000–60,000 killed.

17 February. Russia announced changes in military command. Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev was appointed commander of the Central Military District. ISW suggested that Moscow might intensify cooperation with the Belarusian defence industry to offset equipment shortages and prepare for a prolonged conflict. On the front line, Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Vuhledar, Bakhmut, and Kreminna, with heavy fighting concentrated around the road linking Bakhmut and Kostiantynivka.

18 February. Russia conducted another wave of missile attacks: four Kalibr missiles struck the city of Khmelnytskyi, destroying educational facilities and damaging residential buildings; one civilian was injured. During the Munich Security Conference, a Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister appealed for the provision of cluster and phosphorus munitions, arguing that Russia was already employing such weapons and that their use could enhance Ukraine’s defensive effectiveness. Meanwhile, a representative of Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russia had concentrated nearly 450 aircraft and 300 helicopters within 200 kilometres of the Ukrainian border, potentially indicating preparations for large-scale air support of a renewed ground offensive.

Illustrative photo generated by AI