At the end of January 2023, the situation on the front lines remained tense. Russian forces continued their offensive in Donetsk Oblast, particularly in the areas of Bakhmut and Soledar. Despite Ukrainian defensive efforts, Russian troops advanced slowly, and the intensity of the fighting increased.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources, indicated that Russia was preparing for a major offensive, most likely to take place in the coming months. At the same time, Ukraine was preparing for a spring counteroffensive, awaiting deliveries of Western military equipment, including main battle tanks.

During this period, missile attacks on Ukrainian cities intensified. Critical infrastructure became a primary target, resulting in disruptions to electricity and water supplies, while civilian objects were also struck. Cities such as Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka were shelled on a regular basis. These actions were aimed at terrorising the civilian population and undermining Ukrainian morale.

Western states continued to provide support to Ukraine. On 25 January, Germany, following prolonged pressure, announced its decision to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and authorised the re-export of these vehicles by other states. This decision paved the way for the establishment of a “tank coalition” and a significant strengthening of the Ukrainian armed forces. The United Kingdom confirmed that Challenger 2 tanks would reach the front line before the summer of 2023. However, President Joe Biden ruled out the delivery of F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine, and the United Kingdom acknowledged that supplying fighter jets to Ukraine would be impractical.

The European Union and the United States also continued financial and humanitarian assistance and worked on further sanctions packages against Russia. On 27 January, the European Council extended by six months the sanctions targeting specific sectors of the Russian Federation’s economy.

The Human Rights Watch published a report documenting the widespread use by Russian armed forces of prohibited “butterfly mines.” In several documented cases, allegations concerning the use of the same munitions were also raised against Ukrainian forces, which were said to have dropped them on territories occupied by Russia in the spring of the previous year. In parallel, the German association Connection e.V., which supports deserters, estimated that since the beginning of the war approximately 150,000 men of conscription age had fled from Russia to Western Europe. Germany declared its readiness to grant humanitarian visas to 1,149 Russian citizens.

At the beginning of February, the main fighting took place along the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka axes. Russian forces, despite sustaining heavy losses, continued their attempts to advance and reportedly achieved an operational encirclement of Bakhmut. Ukrainian military intelligence announced that February and March would bring “very active operations” on the front. This assessment was corroborated by analyses of the Institute for the Study of War, according to which Russia was preparing for a decisive offensive in the Donbas but lacked sufficient forces to conduct an attack along the entire length of the front.

On 2 February, the Minister of Defence, Oleksii Reznikov, stated that Russia was preparing for “maximum escalation,” mobilising up to 500,000 soldiers. The offensive was expected around the anniversary of the invasion, on 24 February, and was to be concentrated in eastern and southern Ukraine.

The Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, assessed that the next six months would be “critical” for Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin, speaking during commemorations of the anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad, threatened Germany in connection with the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks, comparing Western support for Ukraine to the policies of Adolf Hitler and warning that “we have something to respond with.”

On 3 February, the United States announced a new military assistance package worth USD 2.175 billion, including, inter alia, MRAP vehicles, Javelin systems, and ammunition for HIMARS. The German government granted authorisation for the export of Leopard 1 tanks.

According to the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence, the Russian army formally incorporated the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts into its Southern Military District.

Illustrative photo/AI