January 20: Authorities in Washington advised Ukrainian leaders to delay plans for a broad offensive against Russian forces until the latest U.S.-supplied military equipment was delivered and soldiers were trained to operate it. Simultaneously, the U.S. Department of the Treasury designated the Wagner Group as a transnational criminal organization, paving the way for additional sanctions against entities linked to the group.

January 21: In its report, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that the defense of Bakhmut made strategic sense as Ukrainian forces effectively tied down Russian troops there, limiting their ability to conduct offensives in other regions. However, the effectiveness of this strategy was undermined by Western delays in delivering heavy weaponry essential for preparing a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The ISW emphasized that the city of Bakhmut itself did not hold critical operational or strategic importance, but its capture by Russian forces could create conditions for further escalation of their offensive actions. The institute also cited U.S. intelligence estimates suggesting Russian losses in Ukraine currently amounted to approximately 188,000 soldiers killed or wounded.

January 23: Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that Poland would provide Ukraine with 14 Leopard 2 tanks, even if Germany did not grant permission. The following day, Poland officially requested Germany's approval for the export of the tanks. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius urged other countries to begin training Ukrainian soldiers on these vehicles. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would supply Ukraine with Leclerc tanks.

Vadym Skibitsky, a representative of Ukrainian military intelligence, stated that "spring and early summer will be decisive periods in the war." According to him, if the anticipated Russian offensive fails, it could lead to the collapse of Russia and Vladimir Putin's regime. Key areas of operations during this period would be the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The ISW noted that Russian forces were preparing for a decisive military operation in Ukraine in the coming months, which could take either offensive or defensive forms.

January 24: A series of resignations occurred within the Ukrainian government due to an alleged corruption scandal in the military. Among those who stepped down were Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko, Deputy Defense Minister Viacheslav Shapovalov, Deputy Prosecutor General Oleksiy Symonenko, and Deputy Infrastructure Minister Vasyl Lozynskyi. According to Taras Melnychuk, a government representative in parliament, the governors of the Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kherson, and Kyiv regions also left their posts, along with Deputy Ministers of Social Policy and Territorial Development, Viacheslav Nehoda and Ivan Lukeria.

January 26: The United States officially designated the Wagner Group as a transnational criminal organization. Sanctions were imposed on partners of the group and companies linked to Russia’s military-industrial complex. In total, the restrictions targeted six individuals and 12 legal entities.

Illustrative photo. Generated by AI