According to a Moldovan intelligence report dated December 19, Russia was planning a military operation against Moldova. Alexandru Musteata, director of the Moldovan Intelligence Service, stated that this operation was a question not of “if,” but “when.” Russia was reportedly seeking to annex Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova, which raised serious concerns about the stability in the region. Amid this unfolding situation, Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to Minsk for talks with Alexander Lukashenko. According to an ISW report, Lukashenko likely resisted Russian demands to deploy Belarusian troops to Ukraine. However, pressure to strengthen the ties between Belarus and Russia continued.

Meanwhile, heavy fighting was taking place on the Ukrainian front, especially around Bakhmut, where the Russians had lost some positions and their offensive met with strong resistance. Ukrainian forces continued limited counterattacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line and in the Luhansk region.

On 20 December, President Vladimir Putin admitted that the situation in four annexed regions of Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) was “extremely difficult” for Russian forces, and ordered the Federal Security Service (FSB) to step up surveillance to secure the borders and to combat the “emergence of new threats” from abroad and traitors at home.

At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Bakhmut region, which had become the focal point of fighting. During his visit, he met with soldiers on the front and awarded them for bravery.

The UK’s Ministry of Defence confirmed that Russian troops, supported by the Wagner Group, had seized small areas in eastern Bakhmut. However, they faced significant difficulties in urban combat in residential areas due to insufficient training. Fighting continued around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, while Russia reinforced fortifications along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River, in anticipation of potential Ukrainian counteroffensives.

The Institute for the Study of War warned that Russian forces stationed in Belarus, while not directly involved, could still pose a threat to Ukraine. However, the full extent of this threat was not specified.

President Volodymyr Zelensky made his first foreign trip since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, travelling to Washington to meet with the U.S. President, Joe Biden. During his visit, he addressed a joint session of the U.S. Congress, emphasizing the critical role that international aid, also from the United States, played in Ukraine’s defence against Russian aggression. Zelensky presented a Ukrainian flag from the Bakhmut front to the Vice President of the U.S., Kamala Harris, and the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, as a symbol of support for Ukrainian soldiers.

During this visit, the United States announced the transfer of Patriot air defence systems and other forms of military aid worth a total of $1.85 billion, to Ukraine. The package also included Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) smart bombs to help Ukraine defend against Russian attacks on critical infrastructure.

At the same time in Russia, President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russian armed forces would be increased by 350,000 soldiers, bringing their total number to 1.5 million. They also announced changes to Russia’s defence policy, such as the restoration of the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts and the establishment of new divisions, which, according to analysts, could be difficult to implement in a short time, due to problems with recruitment and training of new soldiers.

On 29 December, Russia carried out another massive missile attack on Ukraine, using drones and cruise missiles (Kh-101, Kh-555 and Kalibr) launched from ships and strategic bombers, as well as the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles. The attack targeted critical and civilian infrastructure, particularly in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, and Odessa. Ukrainian air defence managed to shoot down 54 out of 69 missiles, and 11 out of 24 Shahed 136 drones. Initially, Mykhailo Podolyak and Oleksiy Arestovych claimed that the number of rockets fired was between 100 and 120.

As a result of the attacks, three people were killed and six injured. The attacks also caused major power outages – 90% of Lviv and 40% of Kyiv were left without electricity. The Defense Ministry of Belarus reported that, as a result of one of the missiles being downed, debris from the S-300 missile fell in rural areas of the Brest region.

Attacks on Kyiv were repeated on 31 December, with Russia firing about 20 cruise missiles, including Kh-101s, which were launched from the Tu-95 strategic bombers over the Caspian Sea and from ground-based missile systems. The attacks targeted Kyiv and the Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi and Mykolaiv oblasts. The Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, reported that the Ukrainian Air Defence Forces had shot down 12 missiles. The Mayor of Kyiv, Vitaliy Klitschko, confirmed that at least one person had been killed and 21 had been injured in the explosion, including a Japanese journalist Wataru Sekita. People also died in Khmelnytskyi and Mykolaiv, and many were injured in Zaporizhzhia. Power outages were reported in several regions of Ukraine.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, President Vladimir Putin did not outline any plans to reverse the unfavourable course of the war in his New Year’s speech. The Russians continued their operations in the Svatove-Kreminna, Bakhmut and Avdiivka regions, and also intensified repressions in the occupied territories.

Illustrative photo. Generated by AI

The Defence Minister of Ukraine, Oleksiy Reznikov, warned Russia of a new mobilization and the possible declaration of martial law. Additionally, as part of a prisoners of war exchange, around 220 individuals were released, including 140 Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol and Snake Island.