On 21 October, Russian forces began withdrawing from the western part of the Kherson oblast, a process expected to take several weeks. This decision came in response to the sustained efforts of Ukrainian armed forces, whose counteroffensive forced the Russians to retreat. General Zaluzhny emphasized that Ukrainian advances had already resulted in the liberation of numerous towns in the region. However, the ongoing Ukrainian offensive could complicate a potential Russian withdrawal. In response, Russian forces might resort to sabotaging the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant by destroying its dam, aiming to impede Ukraine’s progress. 

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian forces had mined the plant in April and had recently placed additional explosives under its locks and supports. Ukrainian authorities warned of a potential disaster that could impact hundreds of thousands of people, flooding approximately 80 towns, including Kherson. Such a situation could be exploited by Russia to falsely accuse Ukraine of destroying the dam. Vladimir Putin ordered the evacuation of civilians from parts of the Kherson region, which further proved the seriousness of the situation and its potential consequences for the region’s inhabitants. 

On 25 October, Ukraine’s atomic energy agency, Energoatom, reported unauthorized activities by Russian military personnel near the spent nuclear fuel storage tanks at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Ukrainian technicians and observers from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were denied access to the facility. Energoatom called on the IAEA to clarify the situation and closely monitor the actions of Russian forces. 

Ukrainian and international experts expressed their growing concern that the Russian military might be preparing provocations. The site housed 174 containers of spent nuclear fuel, which could potentially be used to construct a “dirty bomb.” The presence of Russian troops at the plant and their unsupervised operations, significantly increased the risk of a radiation incident, posing a grave threat not only to Ukraine but also to the entire region. 

On 28 October, the United States announced its 24th military aid package for Ukraine, valued at $275 million. The package included ammunition for HIMARS rocket launchers, 155-mm and 105-mm artillery shells, 60 mm mortar rounds, TOW anti-tank missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems, as well as precision-guided airborne weapons. Additionally, the package included small arms, ammunition, grenades, explosives, anti-tank mines, tactical vehicles, helmets, bulletproof vests, and protective gear against chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats. The Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, announced that the first two NASAMS anti-aircraft systems would arrive in Ukraine in early November, significantly bolstering the country’s air defence capabilities. In addition, the package included 125 HMMWV vehicles, 1,300 anti-armour systems, and four satellite communications antennas. This assistance was part of a comprehensive strategy to support Ukraine amidst the escalating conflict with Russia, particularly in response to the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region. It was announced during a meeting of defence ministers from 50 countries, who convene regularly to discuss ongoing military aid for Ukraine.

On 29 October, at 4:20 a.m. local time, a coordinated drone attack targeted Russia’s Black Sea Fleet ships in the port of Sevastopol. It involved nine aerial drones and seven autonomous sea drones. The Governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, stated that the Russian navy had successfully repelled the attack, which he described as the fiercest since the beginning of the war. 

The reports suggested that some Black Sea Fleet vessels had been damaged. The spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation confirmed that the minesweeper Ivan Golubets had suffered minor damage. Unverified reports also indicated possible damage to the frigate Admiral Makarov, the flagship of the fleet.

Russia used the incident as a pretext to suspend its grain deal with Ukraine, accusing the British Navy unit of taking part in the attack, as well as in earlier attacks on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines. The UK’s government dismissed these allegations.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Ukrainian forces were likely behind the attack on the Black Sea Fleet ships, although Ukraine did not admit to the attack. Russia’s Ministry of Defence described the incident as a “terrorist attack,” but the ISW noted that attacks on warships in times of war were legitimate acts of war that could be a proportionate response to Russia’s bombings of civilian targets in Ukraine.

On the evening of 31 October, the pro-Russian governor of the Kherson region, Volodymyr Saldo, announced a complete evacuation of all settlements within a 15-kilometer radius of the lower reaches of the Dnieper River below the Novaya Kakhovka dam. Saldo justified the decision by claiming that Ukrainian forces were planning to destroy the dam, which could lead to catastrophic flooding in the Dnieper valley. However, experts argued that the Ukrainian army would not gain any tactical benefits from destroying the dam, unlike the Russian forces. This raised concerns that the Russians might be preparing to destroy the dam themselves to delay Ukraine’s counteroffensive. According to the Institute for the Study of War, such rhetoric from the Russian side could be intended to expedite the evacuation of civilians and create a diversionary narrative to cover the withdrawal of Russian troops from the western bank of the Dnieper.

Photo: Dam in Nova Kakhovka. Photo by Липунов Дмитрий. Public Domain.