Feb. 8 and 9 confirmed that the international component of the war was increasingly taking the form of a formal alliance of resources and technologies on the Russian side, and at the same time an escalation of pressure and burdens on the Ukrainian side. According to the ISW, Russia might have supplied North Korea with drone and missile technologies in exchange for its personnel fighting in the Kursk region, which was another step in the militarization of the Moscow-Pyongyang relationship and effectively meant using the battlefield as a testing ground for North Korean systems. At the same time, Reuters pointed to the increased accuracy of North Korean missiles used by Russia, which had not only operational but also humanitarian significance, as improving the precision of ballistic weapons increased the risk of successful strikes on urban areas. On Feb. 9, Ukrainian sources reported the re-engagement of North Korean troops in assaults in the Kursk region and an hours-long nighttime infantry attack repelled by artillery and drones, which pointed to solidifying attrition tactics and the further grinding of human resources on both sides.

On Feb. 10, Russian forces retook Fanseyevka in the Kursk region, and Ukrainian military officials indicated an accumulation and regrouping of Russian forces in the Chasiv Yar area, limiting the use of heavy equipment in favour of more dispersed means of transport and logistics. President Zelensky stated that within a week, Russia had used 1,260 aerial bombs, almost 750 drones and over 10 missiles against Ukraine, which directly translated into a growing threat to populated areas.

Ukraine and the European Investment Bank signed agreements to support the reconstruction of critical and energy infrastructure, but in parallel, the Norwegian Refugee Council announced forced restrictions on aid activities, which in Ukraine meant stopping the distribution of humanitarian aid to tens of thousands of people living near the front line. At the same time, on the US side, Donald Trump publicly linked further support to access to Ukrainian mineral resources, while signalling possible meetings and talks on further strategy, which confirmed that in February 2025 the diplomatic game around the war had entered a phase of tough negotiations over the costs, guarantees and steadfastness of support.

On Feb. 11, the Ukrainians counterattacked in the Pokrovsk area, regaining some positions southwest of the city and slowing down the Russian advance, while the Russians pressed in parallel in the directions of Borova, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, and tightened the encirclement around Kostyantynopil west of Kurakhove. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainians launched an attack southeast of Sudzha, temporarily breaking inside the Russian group of army. Russia carried out a massive missile and drone attack, damaging, among other things, gas installations in the Poltava region, leaving nine localities without gas supplies, while in Zolochiv civilians were injured, including a 12-year-old boy. Ukraine used drones to strike Russian rear targets, including facilities in the Saratov region and the Engels 2 base area. At the international level, South Korea signalled that the DPRK would transfer some 200 long-range artillery systems to Russia, and Trump announced talks with Zelensky, a visit by Kellogg to Kyiv, and the dispatch of the US Secretary of the Treasury for talks on raw materials.

On the night of Feb. 12, Russia attacked, among others, Kyiv. There was a fatality and four injured, including a 9-year-old girl. Damage was also inflicted on Kryvyi Rih and infrastructure in the Chernihiv region, while the Sumy region reported hundreds of explosions and damage to civilian buildings. Local shifts continued on the front, including reports of the Russian capture of Makiivka in the Luhansk region. The UK and the Netherlands announced further military support packages. Politically, Trump's two talks, separately with Putin and Zelensky, and the European response in the form of a meeting of foreign ministers in Paris, which ended with a joint signal that Ukraine and Europe must be participants in the negotiation process and that strong security guarantees were needed, were crucial.

On Feb. 13, during nighttime attacks, the airspace of Moldova and Romania was violated, and drone crashes and explosions were reported on Moldovan soil, raising the risk of regional escalation. In the area of military support, information appeared about deliveries of missiles for IRIS T systems from Germany and about Norwegian funds for air defences. In parallel, a political dispute was growing over the framework of a possible agreement, with the US emphasizing "realism" on the issue of state borders and administration officials signalling the possibility of making future support conditional. In the background, Ukraine was launching internal anti-corruption measures and sanctions against prominent politicians and oligarchs.

The most serious incident of Feb. 14 in terms of security and the law of war was the drone attack on the protective shield of the destroyed reactor no. 4 in Chernobyl, confirmed by the IAEA as an incident with damage to the outer shell, with no increase in radiation levels, which had significant political and perceptions significance during the Munich Security Conference. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons reported the detection of the irritant CS in samples provided by Ukraine, with the Ukrainian side pointing out that thousands of cases of Russia using chemical munitions had been recorded since 2023. At the same time, the remains of 757 fallen Ukrainian soldiers were repatriated. During the Munich Security Conference, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia might be getting ready for further escalation, including against NATO countries, by expanding its military potential in the territory of Belarus, among others.

Illustrative photo/AI generated