On Jul. 17, the Crimean Bridge suffered a second serious damage. As a result of an attack by Ukrainian naval drones, one of the spans of the road section collapsed, significantly complicating Russian logistics. In response, Russia officially announced its withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the termination of security guarantees for marine navigation.

Already on Jul. 19, Russia launched a massive attack on Odessa and Chornomorsk, directly targeting grain terminals and warehouses. Minister Mykola Solskyi reported that as a result of the air raids, 60,000 tons of grain intended for export had been destroyed. On the front, Ukrainian troops pushed the Russians out of positions near Orikhovo-Vasylivka near Bakhmut and achieved successes in the direction of Staromaiorske, capturing key heights. The US announced a $1.3 billion aid package, including four NASAMS systems.

On Jul. 20, the US warned that Russia might be planning false-flag attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea to blame Ukraine, after the Russian Ministry of National Defence designated all vessels sailing to Ukrainian ports as potential military targets.

On Jul. 21, Russia continued its escalation in the south, launching two missile attacks on the Odessa region: grain terminals were destroyed along with 120 tonnes of peas and barley, and historic museums in Odessa (including the Archaeological and Naval Museums) were hit by the Oniks missiles. On the Bakhmut front, Ukrainian forces maintained the initiative, using manoeuvre and flanking tactics to minimize their own losses, aware of the lack of numerical superiority.  Internationally, Bulgaria approved the transfer of around 100 armoured personnel carriers, and Poland announced the reinforcement of its border with Belarus in response to the presence of the Wagner Group. Igor Girkin was detained in Russia on charges of extremism, which was interpreted as a blow by the Kremlin against nationalist circles criticizing the conduct of the war.

On Jul. 22, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out a successful drone attack on an ammunition and fuel depot in the Krasnohvardiiske district of occupied Crimea, which forced the evacuation of civilians and the temporary closure of the Crimean Bridge. In Enerhodar, the Russians intensified repression against the employees of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, using torture and blackmail to force them to cooperate. On the southern front, near Pyatykhatky, Russian war correspondent Rostislav Zhuravlyov (RIA Novosti) was killed in shelling. At the same time, a Deutsche Welle cameraman was wounded in a Russian cluster munition attack near Druzhkivka. Poland launched a service centre for Ukrainian Leopards in Gliwice, and Sweden pledged over €522 million for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

On Jul. 23, Russia's nighttime missile attack on Odessa led to tragic destruction in the city's historic centre, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. One of the shells hit the Transfiguration Cathedral, seriously damaging it. A total of 25 architectural monuments were damaged. On the front, Hanna Malar reported the liberation of another 12.7 sqkm in the south and 4 sqkm near Bakhmut (a total of 227 sqkm had been recaptured since the beginning of the counteroffensive). US Secretary of State Antony Blinken estimated that Ukraine had already retaken about 50% of the territories seized by Russia since February 2022. The ISW reassured that the Wagner Group in Belarus without heavy equipment did not pose a direct threat to NATO.

On Jul. 24, Russia expanded its attacks, using Shahed drones to strike the Danube ports of Reni and Izmail on the border with Romania, destroying grain storage facilities. In response, Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow, hitting buildings near the Ministry of Defence. On the southern front, Ukrainian assault units penetrated enemy lines to a depth of 1.4 km towards Berdyansk. In Konstantinivka, Russian cluster fire from Smerch systems killed an 11-year-old child. The IAEA reported the discovery of anti-personnel mines at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, confirming earlier concerns about the facility's safety.

On Jul. 25, near Bakhmut, Ukrainian troops entered Andriivka, strengthening their position on the southern flank of the city. Minister Oleksiy Reznikov declared on CNN that attacks on the Crimean Bridge would continue until it was completely out of service. The US announced a new military aid package (USD 400 million), including Patriot missiles and Stryker IFVs. Meanwhile, the Russian Duma raised the upper age limit for conscription to 30 and allowed governors to create regional paramilitary formations, indicating preparations for a long war.

Illustrative photo/AI generated