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Timeline of Russia's invasion of Ukraine - Part 104. January 2025

The New Year began with a symbolic and economic breakthrough. Ukraine officially suspended the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe. President Zelensky described this as one of Moscow's biggest failures, as it lost a key tool of pressure on the continent.


However, the day was tragic for the capital. A nighttime attack by 111 drones led to the death of two outstanding scientists – neurobiologist Ihor Zyma and biologist Olesya Sokur. Debris from the UAVs damaged architectural monuments in the centre of Kyiv, including the building of the National Bank of Ukraine. On the front, General Syrsky summarized the fighting in the Kursk region thus far, pointing out that the Russians had lost over 38,000 soldiers.


The situation in the Donbas had deteriorated. Geolocation materials confirmed the Russian seizure of the village of Vozdvyzhenka, and DeepState analysts reported the aggressor's progress in the Kurakhove area. Russian aircraft dropped as many as 11 glide bombs on Stepnohirsk, killing a resident of an apartment block. The Ukrainians responded with a precision attack on the command post of the 810th Marine Brigade in the Kursk region.


In the political sphere, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico reacted sharply to the suspension of gas transit, threatening Ukraine with a cut-off in electricity and limiting support for refugees. Meanwhile, Ukraine officially became a member of the International Criminal Court, which strengthened its position in prosecuting war crimes.


On Jan. 3, President Zelensky announced that Russia had launched over 300 drones and 20 missiles in just three days. Further ballistic missile attacks hit Chernihiv and Sloviansk (where a 2-year-old boy was injured). In response to equipment shortages, Ukraine's Metinvest had developed steel armoured shields for Patriot systems, protecting crews from shrapnel. Prime Minister Shmyhal announced the development of a "Danish model" of financing, which assumed direct foreign investment in Ukrainian arms factories, with the goal of production worth $30 billion by 2025.


On Jan. 4, heavy fighting took place in the Kursk region near Makhnovka, where, according to Zelensky, a battalion composed of Russians and North Korean soldiers was defeated. The 79th Air Assault Brigade was successful, with a two-person assault group having managed to capture as many as 14 Russian soldiers. Ukraine had taken the war deep into Russian territory, attacking the port of Ust-Luga near St. Petersburg with drones. An oil terminal was hit, forcing the temporary closure of Pulkovo airport. The ISW noted that Russia was starting to conserve armoured vehicles due to dwindling Soviet-era stockpiles.


On Jan. 5, Andriy Kovalenko (NSDC) announced the launch of a new offensive by Ukraine in the Kursk region. Despite Russian counterattacks, Ukrainian forces reportedly captured the localities of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Martynovka. At the same time, the ISW warned that Russia was concentrating elite units near Pokrovsk, aiming to completely encircle it.


General Syrsky revealed the scale of the "robot warfare" – in December alone, drones struck over 54,000 Russian targets. Ukraine had begun mass-scale use of FPV drones controlled by fibre optics, which are resistant to Russian electronic warfare. Zelensky made a proposal to Donald Trump: Ukraine wanted to buy American weapons with frozen Russian assets, which would stimulate US industry without burdening its budget.


On Jan. 8, Russian air forces carried out a brutal attack on Zaporizhzhia using FAB-500 bombs. Explosions near the plant and the access road killed 13 people and injured 113. Among the injured were passengers of a tram and a minibus. Ukraine responded with a long-range strike on the Kombinat Kristal oil depot in Engels (600 km from the border). The attack caused a massive fire that destroyed approximately 800,000 tons of aviation fuel, dealing a massive blow to the logistics of Russian strategic bombers.


On Jan. 9, the Russians established a foothold on the Oskol River, approaching to within just 2 km of Kupiansk. At the same time, in the Kursk region, the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade defeated a massive Russian armoured column (about 50 vehicles), destroying equipment worth tens of millions of dollars.


On Jan. 10, the US and UK announced they had imposed coordinated sanctions on nearly 200 ships of Russia's "shadow fleet". The fleet had generated around $23 billion annually for the Kremlin, bypassing oil price limits. In parallel, the EU provided Ukraine with a €3 billion loan from frozen Russian assets, which was intended to stabilize the Ukrainian defence budget. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence announced that nearly 1,300 Ukrainians living in Poland, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania and other European countries had applied to join the Ukrainian Legion stationed in Poland. Another group of volunteers had already signed contracts in Lublin. For the first time, women were among the recruits, applying for medical and communications positions.


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