On Dec. 27, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the capture of Ivanivka, while the Ukrainian side reported the repulse of another landing on the Khortytsia Island. The key event was the confirmation by South Korean and US intelligence of mass losses among Pyongyang soldiers in the Kursk region. Within a week, more than 1,000 Koreans had been reportedly killed or wounded, being used by the Russians as "cannon fodder".

President Zelensky confirmed the capture of wounded DPRK soldiers, who died despite resuscitation attempts. The Ukrainian UAV Forces, in cooperation with intelligence, conducted a successful HIMARS attack on a command post in the Zaporizhzhia region, eliminating three Russian officers. In the civilian sphere, the EIB earmarked €55 million for the reconstruction of 12 Ukrainian regions. At the same time, US media (Bloomberg, NYT) speculated about the need for Ukraine to withdraw from the Kursk region in the spring of 2025 and about the dwindling stockpiles of ATACMS missiles. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico renewed his threat to cut off electricity to Ukraine after the gas transit contract expired.

The British Ministry of National Defence noted a change in the tactics of Russian air strikes to less frequent but more massive waves, which was aimed at overloading Ukrainian defences. General Syrsky summed up the year by pointing to record Russian losses (421,000 soldiers) and a 19-fold increase in drone deliveries to Ukrainian units. On the energy front, Andriy Yermak announced a strategic victory – the arrival of the first shipment of American LNG via Greece. President Zelensky sharply criticized the attitude of Robert Fico, accusing him of opening a "second energy front" on behalf of the Kremlin.

On Dec. 29, Ukrainian intelligence carried out a series of cyber and sabotage attacks, destroying the occupier's telecommunications infrastructure in Donetsk and railway relay cabinets deep in Russia. Denmark, France and Lithuania supported the Ukrainian defence industry with €150 million for the production of missiles and artillery. In Bratislava, Defence Minister Kaliňák sparked controversy by saying Ukraine could be forced to cede territory, arguing that post-war stability was more important than the exact course of the borders.

The last days of the year brought dynamic changes in the Kursk region, where the Ukrainians recaptured the town of Kruglenkoye and the Russians the village of Agronom. The ISW confirmed the Ukrainian counterattacks at Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, with simultaneous Russian pressure on Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka. The year was summed up in Kyiv: over 1,300 drones and 250 missiles fired at the capital had caused 100 days of power outages. There were successful guerilla attacks in the Moscow region (arson of locomotives) and a strike by the Peklo missile drone on the Druzhba pipeline in the Bryansk region. The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) pointed to the threat of complete encirclement of Velyka Novosilka and the entry of Russians into the western Chasiv Yar. The US announced a massive aid package (USD 2.5 billion) and provided USD 3.4 billion in budget support. At the same time, the Financial Times revealed the scale of the problems with mobilization and desertion in the Ukrainian army. Dec. 30 ended with an 11th prisoner exchange (189 Ukrainians for 150 Russians) mediated by the UAE, as Kaja Kallas accused Russia of sabotaging submarine cables in the Baltic Sea. 

On Dec. 31, the ISW summarized the year 2024: Russia occupied 4,168 sqkm of Ukrainian territory (including Avdiivka and Kurakhove), at the cost of lives of over 420,000 soldiers. At the current pace, it would take Russia more than two years to capture the entire Donetsk region. New Year's Eve brought a massive missile-drone attack (61 projectiles), including the use of Kindzhal hypersonic missiles. Although the defences shot down some of the missiles, there were hits in the Sumy and Kyiv regions, and bombings of Zaporizhzhia. In Crimea, naval drones struck Sevastopol, destroying a Tor system. Ukrainian intelligence released historic footage: a Magura V5 naval drone equipped with R-73 missiles shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter over the Black Sea, a first in the history of warfare. Italy allocated €13 million to support the energy sector, and Minister Halushchenko assured that any interruption in electricity supplies through Slovakia would be compensated by imports from Poland and Romania.

Illustrative photo/AI generated